<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss version="2.0"><channel><title>marketmaker.cc</title><description>面向即時市場、經得起驗證的交易系統研究。</description><link>https://marketmaker.cc/</link><language>zh-Hant</language><item><title>預備課：十分鐘讀懂 Rust</title><link>https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/arbitrage-prereq-6-rust-basics/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/arbitrage-prereq-6-rust-basics/</guid><description>套利課程的從零開始短課。透過一個讀取四個價格的小程式，講解 Rust 的變數、迴圈、向量和函式，以及為什麼發布版本更快。程式碼可執行，附有輸出。</description><pubDate>Thu, 12 Nov 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><category>套利</category><category>課程</category><category>預備課</category><category>rust</category><category>性能</category></item><item><title>預備課：機率和鐘形曲線</title><link>https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/arbitrage-prereq-5-probability/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/arbitrage-prereq-5-probability/</guid><description>套利課程的從零開始短課。什麼是機率，怎樣透過計數來測量它，什麼是鐘形曲線，以及為什麼 z 分數大於 2 很少見。程式碼可執行，附有輸出。</description><pubDate>Thu, 12 Nov 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><category>套利</category><category>課程</category><category>預備課</category><category>機率</category><category>正態分布</category><category>Python</category></item><item><title>預備課：向量、矩陣和廣播</title><link>https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/arbitrage-prereq-4-vectors-matrices/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/arbitrage-prereq-4-vectors-matrices/</guid><description>套利課程的從零開始短課。把一列數看作向量，把表格看作矩陣，用 numpy 對所有數一次完成同一個運算，以及什麼是廣播。程式碼可執行，附有輸出。</description><pubDate>Thu, 12 Nov 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><category>套利</category><category>課程</category><category>預備課</category><category>numpy</category><category>向量</category><category>矩陣</category><category>Python</category></item><item><title>先備知識：平均數、離散程度與 z-score</title><link>https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/arbitrage-prereq-3-mean-stdev/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/arbitrage-prereq-3-mean-stdev/</guid><description>套利課程的短篇零基礎課。在十個數字上講解平均數、標準差和 z-score，說明為什麼一個異常值會改變一切，以及 z-score 如何告訴你何時出現異常。</description><pubDate>Mon, 09 Nov 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><category>套利</category><category>課程</category><category>先備知識</category><category>統計</category><category>z-score</category><category>Python</category></item><item><title>先備知識：圖與徒手找最短路徑</title><link>https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/arbitrage-prereq-2-graphs/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/arbitrage-prereq-2-graphs/</guid><description>套利課程的短篇零基礎課。什麼是圖，如何用 Python 儲存圖，如何列出兩點之間的每一條路徑，以及為什麼地圖變大後，逐條嘗試路徑會失效。</description><pubDate>Mon, 09 Nov 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><category>套利</category><category>課程</category><category>先備知識</category><category>圖</category><category>最短路徑</category><category>Python</category></item><item><title>先備知識：對數，或機器人為什麼相加而不是相乘</title><link>https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/arbitrage-prereq-1-logarithms/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/arbitrage-prereq-1-logarithms/</guid><description>套利課程的短篇零基礎課。對數如何處理一串匯率，為什麼對數總和會取代乘積，以及如何理解負號。附有可手動核對輸出的簡短 Python 程式碼。</description><pubDate>Mon, 09 Nov 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><category>套利</category><category>課程</category><category>先備知識</category><category>對數</category><category>數學</category><category>Python</category></item><item><title>發布：把你的機器人展示給別人</title><link>https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/arbitrage-course-16-release/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/arbitrage-course-16-release/</guid><description>套利課程第 16 課，也是最後一課。將模擬交易機器人變成可以展示的成果：交易日誌、報告頁面、README、沒有機密資訊的乾淨公開儲存庫，以及誠實介紹結果的方法。</description><pubDate>Mon, 09 Nov 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><category>套利</category><category>課程</category><category>初學者</category><category>發布</category><category>README</category><category>github</category><category>模擬交易</category><category>python</category></item><item><title>從零開始的配對交易：兩枚拴在一起的幣</title><link>https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/arbitrage-course-15-pairs-trading/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/arbitrage-course-15-pairs-trading/</guid><description>套利課程第 15 課。為什麼比較兩個原始價格沒有意義，價差及其 z-score 如何顯示兩枚關聯幣何時偏離，以及一個展示手續費如何吃掉優勢的小型回測。附有可重現輸出的 Python 程式碼。</description><pubDate>Mon, 09 Nov 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><category>套利</category><category>課程</category><category>初學者</category><category>配對交易</category><category>統計套利</category><category>z-score</category><category>均值回歸</category><category>python</category></item><item><title>期貨對現貨：賺取資金費率</title><link>https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/arbitrage-course-14-futures-spot-funding/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/arbitrage-course-14-futures-spot-funding/</guid><description>套利課程第 14 課。什麼是永續期貨及其資金費率，如何在現貨市場持有一枚幣、在期貨上持有相反倉位，以及手續費、負費率和強制平倉如何影響結果。附有可手動核對數字的簡短 Python 程式碼。</description><pubDate>Mon, 09 Nov 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><category>套利</category><category>課程</category><category>初學者</category><category>期貨</category><category>資金費率</category><category>永續合約</category><category>現貨持有套利</category><category>python</category></item><item><title>速度：向量、矩陣和一點 Rust</title><link>https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/arbitrage-course-13-speed/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/arbitrage-course-13-speed/</guid><description>套利課程第 13 課。用迴圈檢查每個三幣種環路，再用 numpy 矩陣技巧和一段簡短的 Rust 程式檢查，並測量三種方法。附有可執行的程式碼和實際計時結果。</description><pubDate>Mon, 09 Nov 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><category>套利</category><category>課程</category><category>初學者</category><category>numpy</category><category>向量化</category><category>rust</category><category>效能</category><category>python</category></item><item><title>模擬交易、設定與風險限額</title><link>https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/arbitrage-course-12-paper-trading-risk/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/arbitrage-course-12-paper-trading-risk/</guid><description>套利課程第 12 課。讓機器人以即時價格和虛擬資金運作，把每個數字移入設定檔，並加入風險限額，在糟糕的一小時造成損失前停止機器人。附可核對輸出的簡短 Python 程式碼。</description><pubDate>Mon, 09 Nov 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><category>套利</category><category>課程</category><category>初學者</category><category>模擬交易</category><category>風險管理</category><category>設定</category><category>Python</category></item><item><title>現實檢查：計畫和金錢之間會壞掉什麼</title><link>https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/arbitrage-course-11-reality-check/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/arbitrage-course-11-reality-check/</guid><description>套利課程第 11 課。延遲、部分成交、失敗的第二腿和過時價格，搭配一個小型模擬，展示獲利計畫如何變成平均虧損。附有可執行和修改的簡短 Python 程式碼。</description><pubDate>Mon, 09 Nov 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><category>套利</category><category>課程</category><category>初學者</category><category>延遲</category><category>執行風險</category><category>模擬</category><category>Python</category></item><item><title>能交易多少？數量、手續費與滑價</title><link>https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/arbitrage-course-10-size-fees-slippage/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/arbitrage-course-10-size-fees-slippage/</guid><description>套利課程第 10 課。把手續費和走訪委託簿結合起來，計算利潤如何隨交易數量變化，並找出利潤最高的數量。附有可手算檢查數字的簡短 Python 程式碼。</description><pubDate>Mon, 09 Nov 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><category>套利</category><category>課程</category><category>初學者</category><category>手續費</category><category>滑價</category><category>部位大小</category><category>Python</category></item><item><title>閱讀和走訪委託簿</title><link>https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/arbitrage-course-09-order-book/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/arbitrage-course-09-order-book/</guid><description>套利課程第 9 課。什麼是委託簿、如何閱讀附有數量的買賣價、如何走訪委託簿以找出交易的真實價格，以及一個可手算檢查的簡短 Python 函式。</description><pubDate>Mon, 09 Nov 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><category>套利</category><category>課程</category><category>初學者</category><category>委託簿</category><category>滑價</category><category>Python</category></item><item><title>從零認識 RICH：用色彩編碼找出短獲利循環</title><link>https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/arbitrage-course-08-rich/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/arbitrage-course-08-rich/</guid><description>套利課程第 8 課。為什麼機器人想找步數有限的循環、RICH 演算法（VLDB 2025）背後的色彩編碼技巧、一個小型可執行 Python 版本，以及誠實說明哪些部分被簡化了。</description><pubDate>Mon, 09 Nov 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><category>套利</category><category>課程</category><category>初學者</category><category>RICH</category><category>色彩編碼</category><category>負環</category><category>k 跳</category><category>Python</category></item><item><title>從零認識 SPFA：Bellman-Ford 的懶人版</title><link>https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/arbitrage-course-07-spfa/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/arbitrage-course-07-spfa/</guid><description>套利課程第 7 課。SPFA 如何只重新檢查可能改變的道路、一步步的佇列範例、含負環警報的可執行 Python 程式，以及和 Bellman-Ford 的速度比較。</description><pubDate>Mon, 09 Nov 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><category>套利</category><category>課程</category><category>初學者</category><category>SPFA</category><category>Bellman-Ford</category><category>佇列</category><category>負環</category><category>Python</category></item><item><title>從零認識 Bellman-Ford：找出負環</title><link>https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/arbitrage-course-06-bellman-ford/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/arbitrage-course-06-bellman-ford/</guid><description>套利課程第 6 課。用一個很小的例子說明 Bellman-Ford 演算法、為什麼多做一輪能發現負環、會回傳獲利循環的 Python 程式，以及如何手算檢查。</description><pubDate>Mon, 09 Nov 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><category>套利</category><category>課程</category><category>初學者</category><category>Bellman-Ford</category><category>負環</category><category>圖論演算法</category><category>Python</category></item><item><title>將匯率畫成圖：為何套利會變成負環</title><link>https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/arbitrage-course-05-rates-as-a-graph/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/arbitrage-course-05-rates-as-a-graph/</guid><description>套利課程第 5 課。貨幣作為節點、匯率作為箭頭、乘法為何能用對數變成加法，以及獲利的一圈為何會變成總和為負的一圈。</description><pubDate>Mon, 09 Nov 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><category>套利</category><category>課程</category><category>初學者</category><category>圖</category><category>對數</category><category>三角套利</category></item><item><title>比較最佳價格：五間交易所的階段 1</title><link>https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/arbitrage-course-04-compare-best-prices/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/arbitrage-course-04-compare-best-prices/</guid><description>套利課程第 4 課。買賣價差、手續費、報價貨幣和單位，以及一個掃描五間交易所並回報哪些價差扣完手續費後仍存在的短 Python 程式。</description><pubDate>Mon, 09 Nov 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><category>套利</category><category>課程</category><category>初學者</category><category>買賣價差</category><category>手續費</category><category>Python</category></item><item><title>套利系統的階段：設計你的機器人</title><link>https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/arbitrage-course-03-stages-and-design/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/arbitrage-course-03-stages-and-design/</guid><description>套利課程第 3 課。為什麼機器人要分階段運作、每個階段做什麼，以及如何請 AI 代理人提供你看得懂也能檢查的設計。</description><pubDate>Mon, 09 Nov 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><category>套利</category><category>課程</category><category>初學者</category><category>架構</category><category>委託簿</category><category>模擬交易</category></item><item><title>套利的種類：選擇你的機器人類型</title><link>https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/arbitrage-course-02-kinds-of-arbitrage/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/arbitrage-course-02-kinds-of-arbitrage/</guid><description>套利課程第 2 課。四種主要套利（跨交易所、循環、統計、期貨現貨），各有一個小例子，以及如何選擇你的機器人要尋找哪一種。</description><pubDate>Mon, 09 Nov 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><category>套利</category><category>課程</category><category>初學者</category><category>三角套利</category><category>統計套利</category><category>資金費率</category></item><item><title>什麼是套利：10 分鐘做出你的第一個掃描器</title><link>https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/arbitrage-course-01-what-is-arbitrage/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/arbitrage-course-01-what-is-arbitrage/</guid><description>套利課程第 1 課。認識套利的意思、價格落差為何存在，以及用十行 Python 寫出的掃描器，比較同一枚幣在兩間交易所的最佳買價和最佳賣價。</description><pubDate>Mon, 09 Nov 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><category>套利</category><category>課程</category><category>初學者</category><category>買價</category><category>賣價</category><category>Python</category></item><item><title>用於報酬方向的 XGBoost：類別不平衡與決策閾值</title><link>https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/xgboost-gradient-boosting-trading/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/xgboost-gradient-boosting-trading/</guid><description>報酬方向分類器是不平衡問題，而 0.5 是錯誤的決策閾值。比較加密貨幣資料上的 scale_pos_weight、焦點損失與精確率約束閾值最佳化，以及 XGBoost、LightGBM 和 CatBoost 之間的工程差異。</description><pubDate>Tue, 25 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><category>machine-learning</category><category>xgboost</category><category>gradient-boosting</category><category>quant</category><category>prediction</category></item><item><title>Transfer Entropy: Which Way Does Information Flow Between Crypto Assets?</title><link>https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/transfer-entropy-crypto-information-flow/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/transfer-entropy-crypto-information-flow/</guid><description>DCC-GARCH tells you when crypto dependence tightens. Transfer entropy tells you which way it points. A directed information-flow measure, its null calibration, and an honest account of what it does and does not add over average pairwise correlation.</description><pubDate>Mon, 24 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><category>causal-inference</category><category>transfer-entropy</category><category>information-theory</category><category>crypto</category><category>network</category></item><item><title>沒有買賣方標記時的交易分類：Tick、Quote、Lee-Ready、BVC</title><link>https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/trade-classification-algorithms/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/trade-classification-algorithms/</guid><description>從 OHLCV、棒歷史資料或沒有攻擊方標記的交易場所重建交易方向 -  - 經典規則、過時報價問題、批量成交量分類，以及如何用加密市場免費提供的真實標籤測量它們。</description><pubDate>Sun, 23 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><category>microstructure</category><category>trade-classification</category><category>Lee-Ready</category><category>order-flow</category><category>deep-learning</category></item><item><title>逐筆資料模型中的不規則時間：連續時間編碼與純位置嵌入</title><link>https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/tick-data-forecasting-deep-learning/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/tick-data-forecasting-deep-learning/</guid><description>餵入逐筆資料的序列模型仍假設間隔規則。本文介紹三種告訴 Transformer 某筆成交實際發生時間的方法 -  - 可學習時間尺度的連續編碼、ODE-RNN 潛在狀態，以及把 delta_t 作為一般特徵 -  - 並以消融實驗決定它們之間的取捨。</description><pubDate>Sat, 22 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><category>HFT</category><category>tick-data</category><category>deep-learning</category><category>high-frequency</category><category>prediction</category></item><item><title>Synthetic Control Methods for Evaluating Trading Strategies</title><link>https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/synthetic-control-trading-evaluation/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/synthetic-control-trading-evaluation/</guid><description>This series has priced the selection route to a false edge - DSR prices the winner, PBO prices the search. Neither touches confounding: the strategy that made money because volatility doubled the week you deployed it. The Synthetic Control Method builds a weighted counterfactual from a donor pool of untouched instruments and gives you a falsification criterion and a placebo p-value.</description><pubDate>Fri, 21 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><category>causal-inference</category><category>synthetic-control</category><category>counterfactual</category><category>evaluation</category><category>econometrics</category></item><item><title>Scoring Probabilistic Forecasts: CRPS, PIT Calibration, and DeepAR</title><link>https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/probabilistic-forecasting-trading/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/probabilistic-forecasting-trading/</guid><description>How to evaluate a predictive distribution honestly - CRPS as a proper scoring rule, the PIT histogram as a calibration diagnostic, and DeepAR sampling in GluonTS.</description><pubDate>Thu, 20 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><category>forecasting</category><category>probabilistic</category><category>quantile-regression</category><category>DeepAR</category><category>uncertainty</category></item><item><title>Physics-Informed Neural Networks for Options Pricing</title><link>https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/pinn-options-pricing/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/pinn-options-pricing/</guid><description>Putting the Heston, free-boundary, and jump-diffusion pricing PDEs into a neural network loss - the log-price residual, the mixed-partial autograd trick, and what still needs measuring.</description><pubDate>Wed, 19 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><category>deep-learning</category><category>PINN</category><category>options</category><category>Black-Scholes</category><category>PDE</category></item><item><title>PCMCI: Causal Discovery in Multivariate Crypto Time Series</title><link>https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/pcmci-causal-discovery-crypto/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/pcmci-causal-discovery-crypto/</guid><description>How PCMCI&apos;s two-stage MCI test recovers directed causal links between crypto assets where correlation and bivariate Granger cannot - the construction, the tigramite pipeline, and the real-data study it still needs.</description><pubDate>Tue, 18 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><category>causal-inference</category><category>PCMCI</category><category>causal-discovery</category><category>time-series</category><category>crypto</category></item><item><title>Order Flow Imbalance: The Cont-Kukanov-Stoikov Event Decomposition</title><link>https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/order-flow-imbalance-prediction/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/order-flow-imbalance-prediction/</guid><description>Turning raw book updates into a signed flow quantity: the CKS event decomposition, multi-level OFI with PCA reduction, and Lee-Ready trade classification - plus an honest accounting of what the headline R-squared actually measures.</description><pubDate>Mon, 17 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><category>microstructure</category><category>order-flow</category><category>imbalance</category><category>prediction</category><category>HFT</category></item><item><title>Neural ODEs: Does Continuous Time Beat a Delta-Time Feature?</title><link>https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/neural-ode-continuous-finance/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/neural-ode-continuous-finance/</guid><description>Neural ODEs, Neural SDEs and continuous normalizing flows for irregularly-sampled market data - and the one ablation that decides whether continuous dynamics are worth their solver cost.</description><pubDate>Sun, 16 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><category>deep-learning</category><category>neural-ODE</category><category>continuous-time</category><category>SDE</category><category>dynamics</category></item><item><title>Multi-Task Learning for Simultaneous Price, Volume, and Volatility Prediction</title><link>https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/multi-task-learning-trading/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/multi-task-learning-trading/</guid><description>Does jointly predicting return, volume, and volatility actually help? Measuring loss-balancing schemes and diagnosing negative transfer through gradient cosine similarity - with a classical baseline and purged walk-forward folds.</description><pubDate>Sat, 15 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><category>deep-learning</category><category>multi-task</category><category>shared-representation</category><category>prediction</category><category>auxiliary</category></item><item><title>Model Pruning for Low-Latency Trading Inference</title><link>https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/model-pruning-low-latency-trading/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/model-pruning-low-latency-trading/</guid><description>Magnitude and structured pruning, the Lottery Ticket Hypothesis, movement pruning, distillation and 2:4 sparsity - the methods behind shrinking a trading model, and what still has to be measured before any of it ships.</description><pubDate>Fri, 14 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><category>model-compression</category><category>pruning</category><category>lottery-ticket</category><category>latency</category><category>deployment</category></item><item><title>Updating the Volume Curve Intraday: Does Adaptive Forecasting Actually Help?</title><link>https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/liquidity-prediction-execution/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/liquidity-prediction-execution/</guid><description>Our VWAP article shipped a static, weekly-refit volume curve and called the forecaster the weakest link. This is the follow-up: a Bayesian intraday updater run against the same 500-parent BTCUSDT harness, with the IS delta conditioned on realized curve error.</description><pubDate>Thu, 13 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><category>microstructure</category><category>liquidity</category><category>execution</category><category>prediction</category><category>order-book</category></item><item><title>Koopman Operators and DMD: Do Market Modes Survive Out-of-Sample?</title><link>https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/koopman-operator-market-dynamics/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/koopman-operator-market-dynamics/</guid><description>Dynamic Mode Decomposition fits a linear operator to nonlinear market dynamics. The only question that matters: do the fitted modes persist from one window to the next, and does the rolling spectral radius lead realised volatility? Here is the measurement protocol and the code to run it.</description><pubDate>Wed, 12 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><category>mathematics</category><category>Koopman</category><category>dynamical-systems</category><category>spectral</category><category>prediction</category></item><item><title>Knowledge Distillation: Compressing Trading Models for Low-Latency Deployment</title><link>https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/knowledge-distillation-trading-models/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/knowledge-distillation-trading-models/</guid><description>The blog&apos;s standing answer to the accuracy-vs-latency tension is a two-stage fast/slow split. Distillation is a different answer: train one small model to mimic the ensemble. The KD loss, temperature, born-again nets, early exits for a variable latency budget, and the distill-to-FPGA pipeline - plus the measurements that would decide whether it beats the two-stage split.</description><pubDate>Tue, 11 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><category>model-compression</category><category>distillation</category><category>latency</category><category>HFT</category><category>deployment</category></item><item><title>The Other Way a Regression Lies: Endogeneity, 2SLS, and the Gamma Calibration Problem</title><link>https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/instrumental-variables-quantitative-finance/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/instrumental-variables-quantitative-finance/</guid><description>Selection bias in the search is not the only way a regression fools you. When the regressor is correlated with the error, more data makes the estimate more confidently wrong. Instrumental variables applied to the one endogeneity problem this blog has already left open: permanent impact from net taker flow.</description><pubDate>Mon, 10 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><category>causal-inference</category><category>instrumental-variables</category><category>2SLS</category><category>econometrics</category><category>endogeneity</category></item><item><title>Hawkes Processes for Order Arrival and Market Event Modeling</title><link>https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/hawkes-process-order-arrival/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/hawkes-process-order-arrival/</guid><description>Fitting a self-exciting point process to real crypto trade tape: where the three numbers (mu, alpha, beta) come from, how to estimate the branching ratio n, whether the exponential kernel survives a goodness-of-fit test, and how much n moves when you change the estimation window.</description><pubDate>Sun, 09 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><category>microstructure</category><category>Hawkes-process</category><category>point-process</category><category>order-arrival</category><category>crypto</category><category>HFT</category></item><item><title>Hamiltonian Neural Networks: Does a Financial System Conserve Anything?</title><link>https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/hamiltonian-neural-networks-finance/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/hamiltonian-neural-networks-finance/</guid><description>Hamiltonian Neural Networks are provably stable - but stability is worthless if the conserved quantity does not exist. Learning a scalar H via autograd, symplectic integration, and the falsification test that decides whether a financial (q, p) pair is canonical at all.</description><pubDate>Sat, 08 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><category>deep-learning</category><category>Hamiltonian</category><category>physics-informed</category><category>dynamics</category><category>conservation</category></item><item><title>Toda-Yamamoto vs Differenced Granger: Does the BTC Lead-Lag Survive?</title><link>https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/granger-causality-lead-lag-crypto/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/granger-causality-lead-lag-crypto/</guid><description>Granger causality on crypto prices done two ways - differenced returns and Toda-Yamamoto on levels - with a correct Wald implementation, an effective-N corrected causality matrix, and a rolling-stability test of whether the lag is tradeable at all.</description><pubDate>Fri, 07 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><category>causal-inference</category><category>Granger-causality</category><category>lead-lag</category><category>crypto</category><category>VAR</category></item><item><title>非參數價格建模的高斯過程</title><link>https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/gaussian-processes-trading/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/gaussian-processes-trading/</guid><description>金融時間序列的核設計 -  - 母體粗糙度、局部週期成分、光譜混合 -  - 以及作為不需要驗證集的正則化器的邊際似然。加上在任何東西可以交易之前仍然需要衡量的誠實清單。</description><pubDate>Thu, 06 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><category>bayesian</category><category>gaussian-process</category><category>kernel</category><category>uncertainty</category><category>non-parametric</category></item><item><title>基於偏微分方程的金融建模的傅立葉神經算子</title><link>https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/fourier-neural-operator-finance/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/fourier-neural-operator-finance/</guid><description>算子學習映射整個函數空間，而不是點 -  - 傅立葉神經算子如何在頻率空間中參數化 PDE 解算子，為選擇權定價購買什麼，以及它的哪些主張仍然需要在真實硬體上測量。</description><pubDate>Wed, 05 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><category>deep-learning</category><category>FNO</category><category>PDE</category><category>operator-learning</category><category>options</category></item><item><title>一整天的內容能勝過十分鐘的內容嗎？ Flash 注意力與序列長度問題</title><link>https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/flash-attention-trading-models/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/flash-attention-trading-models/</guid><description>Flash Attention 讓 23,400 步驟的交易上下文無需計算 -  - 平鋪、線上 softmax 和 N^2 d^2 / M 的 IO 界限。更長的上下文是否使模型更好是一個單獨的問題，它必須被測量，而不是斷言。</description><pubDate>Tue, 04 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><category>deep-learning</category><category>attention</category><category>Flash-Attention</category><category>GPU</category><category>optimization</category></item><item><title>整合方法：結合弱學習者以獲得穩健的 Alpha</title><link>https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/ensemble-methods-trading/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/ensemble-methods-trading/</guid><description>本部落格未涵蓋有關交易整合的三件事：為什麼協方差項（而不是模型計數）在整合誤差中占主導地位，堆疊如何作為具有折疊元特徵的訊號組合層工作，以及跨多個訊號的周轉淨額是否真正降低了執行成本。</description><pubDate>Mon, 03 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><category>machine-learning</category><category>ensemble</category><category>bagging</category><category>stacking</category><category>alpha</category></item><item><title>Double Machine Learning：估計因果參數而非預測報酬</title><link>https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/double-ml-causal-trading/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/double-ml-causal-trading/</guid><description>本博客至今所有模型回答「什麼預測什麼」。Double ML 回答「什麼導致什麼」 -  - 帶有可辯護的標準誤。部分線性模型、Neyman 正交性、order book 數據上的清理交叉擬合，以及為何有效 DML 信賴區間僅對一個預先指定的問題成立的誠實說明。</description><pubDate>Sun, 02 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><category>causal-inference</category><category>double-ML</category><category>treatment-effect</category><category>econometrics</category><category>quant</category></item><item><title>交易中異質治療效果的因果森林</title><link>https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/causal-forests-treatment-effects-trading/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/causal-forests-treatment-effects-trading/</guid><description>本博客每個回測估計條件平均值。因果森林估計條件治療效果 - tau(x) 而非 mu(x) - 具有誠實分裂、自適應核權重表示以及告訴您發現的異質性是否真實的校準測試。</description><pubDate>Sat, 01 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><category>causal-inference</category><category>causal-forest</category><category>heterogeneous-effects</category><category>econometrics</category><category>treatment</category></item><item><title>認識與對立：衡量收益模型不知道的東西</title><link>https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/bayesian-neural-networks-trading/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/bayesian-neural-networks-trading/</guid><description>本博客的每個位置 sizing 規則都把不確定性坍縮成單一純量。MC Dropout 和深度集成將其拆分為模型無知與市場噪聲 -  - 這兩者值得不同的 position size。</description><pubDate>Fri, 31 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><category>bayesian</category><category>uncertainty</category><category>neural-network</category><category>risk</category><category>position-sizing</category></item><item><title>用於系統化交易流程的 AutoML</title><link>https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/automl-systematic-trading/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/automl-systematic-trading/</guid><description>自動特徵生成（tsfresh、Featuretools）、具預算感知的模型搜尋（FLAML 的節省成本最佳化器），以及 WorldQuant 公式化 alpha 工廠 -  - 本部落格搜尋與過度擬合系列尚未涵蓋的研究流程部分，以及該系列自身結果對它們的啟示。</description><pubDate>Thu, 30 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><category>AutoML</category><category>NAS</category><category>feature-engineering</category><category>automation</category><category>quant</category></item><item><title>將清算級聯作為交易訊號：解讀被迫且預先宣告的流量</title><link>https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/liquidation-cascades-trading-signal/</link><guid isPermaLink="true">https://marketmaker.cc/zh-Hant/blog/liquidation-cascades-trading-signal/</guid><description>Перевод статьи на zh-Hant</description><pubDate>Wed, 29 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate><category>liquidations</category><category>cascade</category><category>trading signal</category><category>defi</category><category>perpetuals</category><category>order book</category><category>market microstructure</category><category>crypto</category></item></channel></rss>